Clouds of War Move Over Shan State

More than 300 civilians from areas controlled by the United Wa State Army (UWSA) have fled their homes in fear of hostilities breaking out between the Wa army and the Burmese government forces, according to several sources.

“I heard that 300 to 400 people from Wa towns had left their homes recently and headed to other towns in Shan State or to the Chinese side of the border,” said Sein Kyi of the Thailand-based Shan Herald Agency for News.

Burma analyst Aung Kyaw Zaw, who is based in Ruili on the Sino-Burmese border, told The Irrawaddy on Wednesday that Wa sources had confirmed that hundreds of villagers from the townships of Hopang, Konlong and Panlong had fled to other towns in Shan State or to China to avoid being caught in the crossfire of a potentially bloody armed conflict.

The precautions come less than one week after an estimated 30,000 Kokang civilians fled to the Chinese side of the border due to a series of clashes between government soldiers and Kokang troops from the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA).

The northeastern highlands of Burma are home to three major armed ethnic groups—the MNDAA, the UWSA and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA)—all of which signed ceasefire agreements with the Burmese junta but have reportedly rejected its request to disarm and join its border guard force ahead of the 2010 election.

Last week, government troops captured Laogai, the Kokang capital, and at least 700 Kokang soldiers were forced to surrender their arms to the Chinese army after fleeing to Chinese soil.

Burma’s state-run daily, The New Light of Myanmar, reported on Wednesday that 5,811 refugees who fled to China had returned to the Kokang region.

“The region is now in stable condition and administrative machinery has become normal,” the state media said.

On Monday, the pro-junta newspaper reported that government troops had seized an illegal arms factory in the Kokang region.

However, many observers are skeptical about the restoration of stability in northeastern Burma as government forces build up their troop numbers in what would appear to be preparations for a continued offensive in the region.

Several analysts say the UWSA will be next on the military government’s hit list.

UWSA and NDAA

If, as predicted, the Burmese junta intensifies its military operations in northeastern Shan State, the greatest resistance will undoubtedly come from the UWSA, which Jane’s Intelligence journal estimates at 25,000 strong.

However, the Wa army is generally based on two fronts, one half in northern and the other half in southern Shan State with five divisions deployed along the Thai-Burmese border.

Last week, about 2,000 UWSA troops traveled to Kokang territory to join their allies, the MNDAA, against the regime’s army.

The northern three Wa divisions are currently on standby and say they expect an attack from the government army in the coming days.

Observers have said that a possible attack on the UWSA would be at Nandeng, a checkpoint town of 10,000 on the Sino-Burmese border.

Meanwhile, some analysts say the smaller force of the NDAA, also known as the Mongla group, based in eastern Shan state, would be the junta’s next target. The former Communist Party of Burma force now has an estimated 1,200 soldiers.

In recent days, the NDAA ordered some 400 Burmese workers in Mongla Township to leave the area in fear that there may be government spies among them. Several suspected Burmese army spies were reportedly arrested.

Sein Kyi said that Burmese military officials had in the past two days traveled to Mongla and advised the NDAA leaders that the clashes in the Kokang region were the result of an internal power struggle between Kokang leaders.

In recent days, the military government has claimed repeatedly that stability has returned to the Kokang region. However, observers note that the junta’s mission in the northeast would be incomplete if the ethnic ceasefire groups are not brought round into joining the border guard plan and thereby legitimizing the military-backed constitution and next year’s general election.